The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.the use of Bayesian belief updating with expected utility maximization may be just an approximation that is only relevant in special situations which meet certain independence assumptions around the agent's actions.In that case, "states" in the formalism would have to be centered possible worlds, in other words an ordinary world-state plus a location.For a brief moment in 2010, Matt Motyl was on the brink of scientific glory: he had discovered that extremists quite literally see the world in black and white.Carnap's work is nevertheless important because today's most popular theory of confirmation—Bayesian confirmation theory—is to a great extent the result of replacing Carnap's logical interpretation of probability with a subjective interpretation as degree of belief by the former.This VBSpam-certified solution uses multiple anti-spam filters that combine Spam Razer technology, greylisting, IP reputation filtering, Bayesian filtering, and other advanced technologies to provide a spam capture rate of more than 99% and minimal false-positives, ensuring the safe delivery of important emails.
Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–De Groot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion.— Steve Rayhawk For those who aren't sure of the need for an updateless decision theory, the paper Revisiting Savage in a conditional world by Paolo Ghirardato might help convince you.(Although that's probably not the intention of the author!(In many other axiomatizations of decision theory, the updating part is left out, and only expected utility maximization is derived in a static setting.) A key assumption is Axiom 7, which the author calls "Consequentialism".I won't try to reproduce the mathematical notation here (see the page numbered 88 in this ungated PDF), but here's the informal explanation given in the paper: This axiom is clearly violated in Vladmir Nesov's Counterfactual Mugging counter-example to Bayesian updating.
However, his heroic efforts to construct a logical probability measure in purely syntactical terms can be considered to have failed.